9/28/09 Dow -778 points, SPX down almost 9%

there has been talk amongst market participants about an umbrella you want to be under. steve leisman spoke of it as a club you want to be in. either you're in or you're out. this club or umbrella if you will is the umbrella of the US government which hovers over institutions that are "too big to fail," or "too big to let fail." the name of the game at this point is trying to figure out who is closest to the handle with both hands firmly clinging to the shaft. if that's not you, you're gonna get wet.

i disagree. when the weather's bad enough the umbrella isn't much help. in a hurricane it rains hard, but getting wet is the least of your problems and an umbrella is worthless. you better be worried about getting swept away. so far we are seeing this is true. whether you fail or are bailed out, investors of these entities are getting wiped out.

if there is a fed umbrella for a select few, the TARP addresses the problem on a much larger scale. the tarp is a disaster shelter. the market needs this, and it may not be enough. i can say with great confidence that if the TARP doesn't pass it will take a loooong time for investors to recover to previous levels. i'm tired of this being called a Wall St bailout. There will be plenty of pain on the Street long after the TARP is put into action. people don't know what's best for them. Main St doesn't know and shouldn't be expected to know how LIBOR effects them. That is a shortcoming of our education system. But Congress has no clue either. That's shameful.

there's also a human side of this. it's gonna get even more human if the TARP doesn't pass. jobs will be lossed, homes will be lossed. i'm working 14 hour days. i don't experience the outdoors during daylight hours. i am going to church tomorrow.